Bitcoin trader says expect more chop, downside, then sideways price action for BTC this summer
Discussion of the state of the crypto market has been a dominant headline over the past few weeks as non-crypto native media excoriate Bitcoin (BTC) and DeFi investors for investing in assets with no fundamental value. At the same time, crypto-savvy analysts and traders have been pouring over charts, looking for clues that signal when the market will bottom and reverse course.
Novice investors are clearly nervous and a few have predicted the demise of the burgeoning asset class, but for those that have been around for multiple cycles, this new bear market is just another forest clearing fire that will eventually lead to a healthier ecosystem.
The next steps for the crypto market was a topic discussed in depth with Cointelegraph contributor Crypto Jebb and independent market analyst Scott Melker. The pair chatted about their views on why the value proposition for Bitcoin remains strong and what the price action for the top cryptocurrency could look like moving forward.
Here’s a look at some of the key points discussed by Crypto Jebb and Melker.
Bitcoin is being used as it was originally intended
Traders are primarily focused on Bitcoin’s spot price and lamenting the fact that it is not performing as the inflation hedge that many promised it would be, but Melker pointed out that its performance largely depends on the country and economic state of where an individual lives.
Bitcoin may be down significantly in terms of U.S. dollars, but when compared to countries like Venezuela that are experiencing hyperinflation, or Nigeria, which has a large unbanked population, BTC has offered people a way to preserve the value of their money and transact in an open financial system.
One of the biggest functions highlighted by Melker is that Bitcoin is the first real asset that has given people around the world the ability to opt out of the current financial system if it’s not working for them.
According to Crypto Jebb, Bitcoin is thermodynamically sound, meaning he defined as the asset holding on to the energy that is put into the system and that it doesn’t “leak” it out through things like inflation.
What direction will the market take?
Regarding the market’s future, Melker made sure to emphasize that while it may not seem like crypto adoption is moving fast to those who have been in the market for years, “the adoption of Bitcoin is faster than the internet. It’s a hockey stick curve that is absolutely going parabolic.”
Both Crypto Jebb and Melker suggested that the paradigm shift toward investing in cryptocurrencies just needs more time because people who have been conditioned to invest in things like a 401k or Roth IRA and most investors are trained to fear risk.
In response to possible critics who would cite Bitcoin’s volatility as a core reason to avoid cryptocurrencies, Melker highlighted the struggles that equities markets have had lately, citing the poor performance of stocks like Netflix, Facebook, PayPal and Cathie Woods’s ARK funds.
“Last month was the first time I believe I saw research from Messari that said there wasn’t a single place that you could have basically put money in an asset class and stored any sort of value. And if you stayed in cash, you lost 8% of your buying power doing that.”
Related: Deutsche Bank analysts see Bitcoin recovering to $28K by December
Expect more downside over the short-term
According to Melker, the current condition of the market is poor and in the short-term, it’s important to remember that “the trend is your friend” and that further downside is likely.
That being said, Melker indicated that there are some developments coming up that could help the market out of its lull, including the Fed tightening cycle which has historically put pressure on asset prices for the first three quarters of the tightening cycle until the market adjusts to the new reality.
“My best guess is that we have a very choppy, boring low-volume, low liquidity summer. Maybe we put in new lows, or maybe we just chop around from $17.5K to $22K or $23K, something like that. And then we really start to see what the market is made of coming into the end of the year.”
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.